Maverick Philosopher

Nihil philosophicum a me alienum puto

To promote independent thought about ultimates. Philosophy, commentary on the passing scene, and whatever else turns my crank. Since 4 May 2004. By William F. Vallicella, Ph.D., Gold Canyon, Arizona, USA. Motto: "Study everything, join nothing." (Paul Brunton) Latin Motto: Omnia mea mecum porto. Turkish motto: Yol bilen kervana katilmaz. (He who knows the road does not join the caravan.) All material copyrighted.

Russell's Teapot: Does it Hold Water?

Here is a famous passage from Bertrand Russell's Is There a God?

Many orthodox people speak as though it were the business of sceptics to disprove received dogmas rather than of dogmatists to prove them. This is, of course, a mistake. If I were to suggest that between the Earth and Mars there is a china teapot revolving about the sun in an elliptical orbit, nobody would be able to disprove my assertion provided I were careful to add that the teapot is too small to be revealed even by our most powerful telescopes. But if I were to go on to say that, since my assertion cannot be disproved, it is intolerable presumption on the part of human reason to doubt it, I should rightly be thought to be talking nonsense. If, however, the existence of such a teapot were affirmed in ancient books, taught as the sacred truth every Sunday, and instilled into the minds of children at school, hesitation to believe in its existence would become a mark of eccentricity and entitle the doubter to the attentions of the psychiatrist in an enlightened age or of the Inquisitor in an earlier time.

Posted by William F. Vallicella on Friday January 26, 2007 at 8:22pm
Spur:
Bill,

I agree with much of what you say, but it isn't clear to me that Russell is making the third move you ascribe to him. Why can't we read this passage as making a point about the burden of proof and nothing more?

Incidentally, my own view is that theist and atheist equally share the burden of proof, as do teapot believers and teapot deniers. I hold that in the absence of sufficient evidence one way or the other, we should be agnostics, not deniers.
1.27.2007 9:12pm
Bill Vallicella (mail) (www):
Spur,

Thanks for reading. No time today, but I hope to respond tomorrow. What we should do in the absence of sufficient evidence one way or the other is an interesting and important question.
1.28.2007 12:20pm
Alan Rhoda (mail) (www):
Thanks for the post, Bill. Insightful as always.

Regarding burden of proof, I agree with Spur that every claim faces a burden of proof in that it is always fair to challenge the claim by asking for its grounds or justification. That said, I don't think it follows that theist and atheist "equally" share the burden of proof. Rather, it seems to me that the extent of this burden can be modified by at least three factors:

(1) Prima facie plausibility. All other things being equal, one who makes a claim having less prima facie plausibility has a greater burden of proof than one who makes a claim that has greater prima facie plausibility.
(2) High stakes. All other things being equal, the more deleterious the consequences of a claim's being false, the greater the burden of proof on the one making the claim. (e.g., Before a new prescription drug is approved, it ought to go through extensive testing for harmful side effects.)
(3) Conventional stipulation: In some contexts (e.g., a formal debate, or a criminal trial) there is a conventional burden of proof that each of the participants implicitly accepts.

Assessments of (1) and (2), in particular, exhibit a degree of audience-relativity. Thus, an atheist like Russell may judge that the idea of God is so antecedently implausible that, given the inconclusiveness of the standard arguments for God's existence, the theist has failed to meet his burden of proof and thus has failed to establish his rational bona fides in believing in God. A theist or an agnostic, however, may find the traditional theistic arguments more than adequate to establish the rationality of theism because they don't judge theism to have such a high prima facie implausibility.

Granting all that, however, your point--and I think it's a good one--is that Russell fails to appreciate the fact that principled arguments can be given for theism and that, even if all of those arguments prove unconvincing, that's still a lot more than can be said for invisible unicorns and such.
1.28.2007 9:35pm
Bill Vallicella (mail) (www):
Spur,

If you read the quoted passage in the context of the whole article, it seems evident to me that Russell is not merely making a point about the burden of proof. He is suggesting, though he is not explicitly stating, that the existence of God is no more plausible than that of a celestial teapot. And surely this is what people like Dawkins think. And even if Russell is not suggesting this, this is what atheists who invoke the passage typically take him to be suggesting. See, for example, how the quotation is used at this site.

Suppose we canvass all the arguments and considerations for and against theism and come to the conclusion that they balance out. Then, according to you, we should be agnostics. Here I think Alan makes the right response in his #2.

We are not mere theoretical spectators, but interested agents, and the stakes are high. Analogy. I am dying of thirst in the desert. I come upon two water sources. I know one is poisoned with arsenic, the other potable, but I don't know which is which. Do I remain agnostic, suspend judgment, and refuse to drink? Or do I just drink from one and hope for the best? Surely it would be prudentially irrational for me not to drink at all. If you say that, nonetheless, theoretical rationality enjoins suspension of judgment, then my response will be that we are not merely theoretical beings.
1.29.2007 8:08am
Bill Vallicella (mail) (www):
Alan,

Thanks for the excellent comments. Your three points are a very helpful supplement to thi discussion.

It doesn't bother me that there are atheists; what bothers me is that most of them seem incapable of seeing that theism is a live option. For me, and perhaps for you too, atheism is a live option. Why isn't theism a live option for atheists? It is not as if they have knock-down arguments. At this point one is tempted to psychologize. Any thoughts?
1.29.2007 8:16am
Bill Vallicella (mail) (www):
Spur,

You used the phrase 'sufficient evidence.' One could say that p is sufficient evidence for q just in case p entails q. If you don't intend this strong reading of 'sufficient evidence,' what do you mean by the phrase?
1.29.2007 8:31am
Tim:
I think we need to be careful in our location of the consideration Alan raises in his #2. The "burden" there seems to be a non-epistemic consideration that motivates the request for stronger evidence, not an epistemic consideration in view of evidence that requires to be outweighed. The conflation of these in some versions of Pascal's Wager causes a good deal of needless trouble.
1.29.2007 8:39am
Alan Rhoda (mail) (www):
Bill,

Well, I wouldn't attempt to psychologize atheists as a group. Some, like William Rowe, strike me as paradigms of fair-mindedness. But with regard to Dawkinsesque atheists - those that think that theists are invariably stupid, insane, wicked, etc. - I think psychologizing may be in order. Many of those atheists are so uncharitable toward theism and theistic arguments, that it begs for an explanation. Thomas Nagel's famous admission in The Last Word that he doesn't want there to be a God suggests that a volitional explanation may be appropriate. (Of course, it might fairly be argued that many theists are excessively uncharitable toward atheists and that this shows that they are to some degree engaged in wishful thinking.) As you point out, we aren't mere theoretical spectators.
1.29.2007 9:58am
Alan Rhoda (mail) (www):
Tim,

You raise an important point about the relation between 'epistemic' and 'pragmatic' justification. In my view, these two cannot be completely separated. Peirce argued, and I think he's right, that epistemic justification is a species of ethical justification, which in turn is a species of aesthetic justification. The science of intrinsic goods (aesthetics) determines what we ought to strive for (ethics). Rational thought or inquiry is a striving after the truth. Hence, epistemic norms are ultimately grounded in ethical and aesthetic norms. We ought to pay attention to the evidence, be careful and systematic in our thinking, and so forth, because truth, understanding, and knowledge are intrinsic goods and by conducting our inquiries in such a manner we thereby maximize our chances of reaching those goals.

With respect to high stakes, if mistakenly accepting a certain claim would make it significantly less likely overall that we would be able to obtain certain intrinsic goods (the chief of which being the summum bonum), then we ought (morally) to be more careful before accepting that claim. But to be more careful about accepting a claim is to be more careful about assessing the evidence for that claim. So the moral ought naturally gives rise to an epistemic ought.
1.29.2007 10:23am
Spur:
Good comments, gentlemen.

Bill,

You may be right about Russell's intent; I haven't read the broader context of the passage.

By 'sufficient evidence', I meant something like 'evidence sufficient for justifying belief in X'. So it is definitely something weaker than entailment.

Bill and Alan,

I am unconvinced by #2, and I think Tim and I are on the same page here. Consider the example of the new prescription drug. One side claims that the drug is safe, the other that it is unsafe. I believe that until we are given good reason to think either that the drug is safe or that it's unsafe, we should remain agnostic. It would be wrong for us to believe, until someone proves otherwise, that the drug is unsafe. Likewise it would be wrong to believe the drug safe until someone has proven otherwise. Our view should be that until someone makes a good case one way or the other, we don't know whether or not the drug is safe. Still, given that the stakes are so high, our policy for approving the drug will be that we will not approve it until it has been shown to be safe. So with respect to approval, the proponents of the drug will have to shoulder the burden. But with respect to what we ought to believe about the safeness of the drug, both proponents and opponents will equally share the burden.

Something similar applies to Bill's example about the poisoned water. Given that the stakes are so high, and that not drinking will mean certain death, whereas drinking gives one a 50/50 chance of living, it is clear that we should pick one and drink from it. But that tells us nothing about what we should believe about the water. If I arbitrarily choose to drink from source A, I can (and should) still remain agnostic about whether A or B is poisonous. The high stakes should have no effect on what I believe.

The case of Pascal's wager is interestingly different, because there the high stakes concern what we believe, not just what we do. In the examples provided by Alan and Bill, one can remain agnostic while drinking the water from one of the sources and not approving the drug, but if Pascal were right, then the high stakes would lead one to give up agnosticism. In that case, the burden of proof would perhaps be on the atheist and not the theist. But if Pascal's wager fails, then the burden of proof should fall equally on theist and atheist.
1.29.2007 3:56pm
Bill Vallicella (mail) (www):
Spur,

Good response, not easily met. The subject matter is difficult and I confess to being 'at sea.'

Suppose I am in a room with human beings and extremely life-like humanoid robots. I can't tell them apart. I approach what seems to be a charming woman, but I have no evidence one way or the other for her being a human being or a robot. (I look inside her mouth as she talks and it looks just like a human mouth; she drinks wine and gets inebriated; etc, etc.)

On your way of thinking, I have no justification for believing that she is a human being or that she is a robot. I should therefore suspend judgment. But I want to have a personal relation with her (maybe sexual too, but first and foremost personal). I want to get to know her and get her to like me (if possible). So I need to open up to her psychologically. I have to address her as a person, as a Thou not as an It. This 'treating her as a person not as a thing' seems impossible without my (unjustified) belief that she is a person, not a robot. Without this belief and this behavior, I close off any possibility of a relationship.

If I suspend judgment, then I fail to attain a good. If I affirm a proposition for which I have evidence, but insufficient evidence, and act on it, then I attain a good.

Now suppose, as I think you are supposing, that Wm. James is wrong and that the true is not the good in the way of belief (in the long run, etc), that the true need not conduce to human flourishing or happiness. Then I ask: why is epistemic as opposed to pragmatic rationality a value? And why is truth a value? Assuming that they are values, it would seem that there would have to be some systematic connection between truth and human flourishing.
1.29.2007 6:53pm
Tim:
Spur,

We are indeed on the same page.

Alan,

I agree with your distinction between Rowe-type and Dawkins-type atheists. It is very striking. And yes, there are some parallels on the other side of the line as well.

On the epistemic and the pragmatic, I disagree pretty strongly with the view you articulate. If we do not separate the quality of our reasons from the consequences of our beliefs and our actions, I think we cannot do pure epistemology -- and unlike many modern anti-Cartesians, I am quite certain that there is such a thing. Probably finding out more about my position isn't high on your priority list, but if you find yourself with nothing else to do at some point, you might want to check out this recent book.

Bill,

Assuming that you know the setup going in regarding the indistinguishable humans and robots, you're not going to be able to come up with a rational ground for thinking the woman is a human. But be of good cheer: even if the body is robotic, she may have a soul anyway. After all, Cartesian dualism is true ... !
1.29.2007 7:36pm
Bill Vallicella (mail) (www):
Tim,

The ASU library has your first book, but not the new one. They should be getting it, though. I look forward to reading it. Congratulations to you and Lydia. Did you tell me that you had some trouble with a pol. correct editor?
1.30.2007 8:39am
Alan Rhoda (mail) (www):
Spur,

You make an interesting distinction between belief and approval, one that, I’ll grant, seems to effectively neutralize my drug testing example. I like to set that particular issue aside, however, and comment on what seems to be a more fundamental difference between you and Tim, on the one hand, and Bill and myself, on the other.

I gather that the salient difference between belief and approval in your view is that belief is a purely theoretical matter, whereas approval has a practical dimension. To approve something is to recommend it as a means for obtaining some possible practical purpose. From my perspective, however, belief essentially has both a theoretical and a practical aspect. As I see it, belief comes in degrees (subjective probabilities ranging from 0 to 1) and the strength of one's belief just is the degree to which one is prepared to rely on it to inform one's choices and actions. A putative belief with no practical ramifications whatsoever is not really a belief in the same way that faith without actions is not real faith.

To say that we “should” remain agnostic on any given matter until evidence tips the scales one way or the other and that it would be “wrong” to depart from agnosticism otherwise suggests that we generally have control over how our doxastic scales balance out. (Otherwise, why the normative language?) Normally this is not the case. Most of our beliefs seem to come to us through the spontaneous functioning of our perceptual and cognitive faculties, and others (such as our initial trust in our perceptual faculties) seem to be ones that we start out with in advance of any evidence one way or the other. To say that we “should” or “should not” have such beliefs is beside the point. The fact is we have them, and in any course of inquiry we might embark on we’re going to be taking many of them for granted. And even in those cases in which we do start out neutral on some issue, it’s not a disinterested neutrality. The very fact that we decide to investigate that issue while ignoring others shows that our inquiry is interested, and thus practically oriented, from the get-go. Distinctively epistemological interests are oriented toward truth (on the practical assumption that truth is a real and achievable good), as opposed to “cruder” interests like how to get a job, cure diseases, or put food on the table. But epistemological interests are not non-practical for that reason. With regard to how we can maximize our chances of getting to the truth while avoiding serious error, the distinction between the epistemic and the practical collapses. When the good one seeks is the truth, sound methodology and sound epistemology coalesce.


Tim,

If by “pure epistemology” you mean something purely theoretical and not at all practically interested, then I think you’re not nearly anti-Cartesian enough. Your book looks interesting, though. Hopefully I'll get a chance to look at it in the near future. Cheers.
1.30.2007 4:50pm
Tim:
Alan,

You misunderstood me: I'm anti-anti-Cartesian. ;)
1.31.2007 5:34am
Spur:
Alan,

I don't find it easy to see what you are getting at. Are you saying (among other things) that we shouldn't believe that we generally have control over what we believe?
1.31.2007 4:00pm
Alan Rhoda (mail) (www):
Spur,

I think what control we have over our beliefs is indirect. What we can directly control is how we engage in the process of inquiry, where we direct our attention, what sources of evidence we consult, etc. All that, in turn, will shape what beliefs we form, which we keep, and which we give up.

The contrasting position, that we can directly control our beliefs, is known as 'doxastic voluntarism'. I reject this position because it doesn't seem to me that I can just form a belief that, say, there's a raging elephant in front of me. Perhaps over time, by self-hypnosis and such, I could induce a belief like that, but that would be an indirect process, not a basic action like raising my right hand.

So, yes, I believe that we do have a measure of control over our beliefs, but it is indirect and partial.
1.31.2007 5:59pm
Spur:
Alan,

Thanks. I understand your view better, and it agrees perfectly with my view. But I don't see how this in any way impugns my talk of what we should or shouldn't believe. Do you really think it's inappropriate to say things such as: "If all the evidence we have strongly suggests that P is false, then we should not believe P"?
1.31.2007 8:32pm
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