A paper read before the Philosophy Department at Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey, November 1995. Slightly revised and expanded February 2004. Minor corrections, February 2007.
If it can be shown that the universe has an internal explanation, then cosmological arguments for the existence of God cannot succeed. This paper argues a double-barreled thesis: Hume-style attempts to show that the universe has an internal explanation are inconsistent with Hume’s own regularity theory of causation; and the regularity theory is in any case false.
1. The Issue
Which of the following is true? (A) Although events within the universe have explanations, the universe itself has no explanation; its existence is a brute fact. (B) The universe has a transcendent explanation in terms of a being external to it such as God. (C) The universe is self-explanatory: it has an immanent explanation, one in terms of itself. My view is that (C) is false: the universe cannot be self-explanatory. Here I go part of the way towards establishing the falsity of (C). If I am right, the universe either has no explanation, or has an explanation in terms of a transcendent being Although not every explanation is causal, by ‘explanation’ I here mean causal explanation.
To make things difficult for the theist, let us assume that (i) the universe, contrary to Big Bang cosmology, had no beginning in time, i.e., has an infinite past, and that (ii) the universe is not an individual in its own right, but a collection of individuals. Thus the universe is not something above and beyond its members, any more than a university is something above and beyond the sum-total of its buildings, roads, and playing fields, etc. By ‘universe’ I mean the totality of all concrete objects, whether physical or mental, except God (if He exists). It follows that abstracta (numbers, Fregean propositions, etc.) are not part of the universe. Since the universe can gain and lose members without prejudice to its identity, it is not plausibly thought of as a set or mereological sum; it is better thought of as a concrete aggregate. What exactly a concrete aggregate is, is part of the problem.
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I assume that the universe is modally contingent: it might not have existed. It exists in some but not all possible worlds, to employ Leibnizian imagery, and one of these is the actual world. If a thing is modally contingent, it does not follow that it is contingent upon something else, that it depends on something else for its existence. The qualifier ‘modally’ is meant to highlight this fact, but I will drop this qualifier from here on out to save breath. The contingency of the universe is not an inference from the contingency of its members — that would be the fallacy of composition. I merely posit as intuitively obvious the contingency of the universe. For if each member of the universe is contingent, it is difficult to see how the universe — which we are thinking of as a kind of collection — could be necessary. In any case, if the universe were necessary, it would not require an explanation. By the way, let us not confuse being necessary (existing in all metaphysically possible worlds) with being omnitemporal (existing at every time). For there is no reason to suppose that an omnitemporal universe might not have existed. These are clear and distinct, and clearly distinct, ideas: existing in every possible world vs. existing at every time in a given possible world.
I said that the universe exists in the actual world. This implies that the universe is distinct from the actual world. The universe is a concrete aggregate, but possible worlds, pace David Lewis, are abstracta, Fregean propositions on my view. A possible world is a maximal proposition, one that entails every proposition with which it is logically consistent. The actual world is the maximal proposition that is true. (The actual world cannot be the set of all true propositions, since one can prove using Cantor’s Theorem that there can be no set of all truths.)
Now David Hume, and more recently Paul Edwards, are proponents of (C). In his Dialogues on Natural Religion, IX, Hume argued against the cosmological argument for the existence of God roughly as follows: To explain the members of a collection is to explain the collection. So if the universe is a collection, an explanation of each member of the universe will suffice to explain the universe itself. Think of each member as a total state of the universe at a time. The Humean-Edwardian can say that each member is caused by (and is thus explainable in terms of) an earlier member. Since we are assuming, with Hume, that there is no first member, no initial state of the universe, EVERY member is caused and is thus explainable in principle. And since the universe is not something above and beyond its members, the fact that every member has a cause entails that the universe has a cause. The consequence is that the universe has an internal or immanent explanation. It follows, of course, that there is no need for an explanation in terms of a transcendent being. Since the universe is self-explanatory, causally self-contained, the cosmological argument collapses. Of course, in this context, ‘self-explanatory’ does not mean necessary: if Hume is right, the universe is a contingent being that explains itself. A fascinating idea — but can it be made to work?
2. A Putative Counterexample
Central to Hume’s argument is the premise that to explain the members of a collection is to explain the collection. But consider the components in a computer. Each component has its own manufacturer, reference to which explains its existence. But a computer is not just a number of components, but a number of components connected together in the right way. Therefore, to explain the computer, it does not suffice to explain each of its components; one must also explain their connectedness by invoking an assembler. So it cannot be true that every collection is such that it is wholly explained by an explanation of its members.
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Nevertheless, since many collections do satisfy this condition, the Humean may retreat to a restricted principle: to explain the members of a collection the unity of which is uncaused is to explain the collection. Consider the collection of Americans now in Ankara. To explain why each is here suffices to explain why the whole lot of them is here: there is no need for an additional explanation of why the collection is here.
This raises the question: Is the universe a whole the unity of whose parts is uncaused, or is it a whole the unity of whose parts requires a cause? To invoke an old Buddhist example, if you are given a bunch of chariot-parts, are you thereby given a chariot? No, for the reason that the parts can exist whether or not the chariot exists. A chariot is its parts PLUS their connectedness. (See Buddhist Studies to read more about chariots and where they can take us.) But whereas the parts of a chariot can exist whether or not the chariot exists, it is difficult to see how the parts of the universe could exist without the universe existing. In this maximal case, the existence of the parts is eo ipso the existence of the whole. The parts of the universe don’t need to be assembled: they are ‘automatically’ assembled. Or at least this is what I will be assuming so as to give Hume and Co. the benefit of the doubt. In other words, I dismiss the putative counterexample to Hume’s principle.
3. Hume’s Objection to the CA is Inconsistent with Hume’s Own Theory of Causation
Our question is why the universe exists. Does it exist without cause as a matter of brute fact? Does it exist because a transcendent being caused and causes it to exist? The Humean-Edwardian answer is that the universe exists because each of its members is caused to exist by a temporally preceding member, and the universe is just the collection of these members. This answer is a good one only if causation is production, i.e., only if causation is causation-of-existence. Only then will an immanent causal explanation of the existence of the universe be possible. On Hume’s regularity theory of causation, however, causation is not causation-of-existence. Thus what I will now argue is that Hume’s objection to the cosmological argument in the Dialogues on Natural Religion is inconsistent with the regularity theory of causation standardly imputed to him on the basis of passages in the Treatise and in the Enquiry. A regularity theorist cannot make use of Hume’s objection to the cosmological argument.
On the regularity theory, for any individual events x and y, x causes y if and only if (i) x and y are spatiotemporally contiguous; (ii) x temporally precedes y; and (iii) x and y are tokens of event-types X and Y that are “constantly conjoined.” Note that it is only event-types, and not event-tokens, that can be said to be constantly conjoined, and that this is just to say that it is an exceptionless de facto generalization that every instance (token) of X is followed by an instance (token) of Y. It would make no sense to say that a particular blowing is “constantly conjoined” with a particular extinguishing of a candle-flame. It is only the corresponding event-types that can be said to be “constantly conjoined.” The gist of the regularity theory is that what makes an event sequence a causal sequence is its instantiation of a regularity. Thus no event sequence is intrinsically causal: it is causal only in virtue of its instantiation of a regularity. This implies that a particular event-sequence's being causal depends on what happens elsewhere in the universe — something that ought to strike one as counterintuitive. Thus the regularity theory implies that a possible world in which there are only two events is a world in which neither can cause the other, and this for the reason that in such a world there are no regularities: the very sense of ‘regularity’ implies the multiple instantiation of event-types. (More on this later.) The point is not merely that causation is regular — same (type of) cause, same (type of) effect — but that regularity, or “constant conjunction,” is what constitutes causation.
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It seems clear that on this theory of causation, no event produces, brings about, or causes-to-exist any other event. For at the level of individual events, all there is is contiguous succession of Humean “distinct existences.” All there is is one event following another, with no real-world connection between them. The fact that there is “constant conjunction” or instantiation of a regularity does nothing to introduce production at the level of individual events. No individual event produces, brings about, or causes-to-exist any other individual event. Events simply fit a pattern: X-type events are, as a matter of contingent fact, always followed by Y-type events. But for individual events to fit a pattern, or instantiate a regularity, they must already (logically speaking) exist. It follows that one cannot account causally for the existence of an event by saying that it instantiates a regularity. To attempt such an account would be to move in an explanatory circle of embarrassingly short diameter. Events must exist if they are to instantiate regularities; hence, a causal explanation of why they exist cannot invoke their instantiation of regularities. At most, the regularity theory provides a criterion for distinguishing causal from non-causal event sequences given that there are events; it is useless when it comes to explaining why there are any events in the first place.
Since the regularity theory does not allow for genuine causal production, it cannot be used to explain the very existence (occurrence) of any event or state. Consequently, it cannot be used to explain the existence of the universe as the collection of all events. The upshot is that the regularity theory of causation is inconsistent with the thesis that animates Hume’s objection to the Cosmological Argument, namely, the thesis that the universe has an internal explanation of its existence. Hume’s theory of causation does not analyze our ordinary notion of causation as production, or causation-of-existence; it replaces our ordinary notion with a watered-down notion that conforms to empiricist strictures. For this very reason, Hume’s regularity theory of causation is useless when it comes to explaining the existence of the universe.
It is a further question whether there is any extant theory of event-causation that could be of use to those who seek an immanent causal explanation of the universe. I do not believe that there is — but that is a topic for another occasion.
4. The Regularity Theory is False In Any Case
The regularity theory is not only useless for purposes of rebutting the cosmological argument, it is demonstrably untenable in its own right. Here are four arguments.
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1. Consider a particular causal sequence S in the actual world. S might be the sequence consisting of the striking of a match followed by its lighting. Obviously, there is a very large finite number n of sequences of S’s type in the actual world. Now consider a series of merely possible worlds. The first such world, W(n-1), is the possible world that results from subtracting one of the sequences of S’s type (other than S) from the actual world, and making the required adjustments. The second such world, W(n-2), is the world that results from subtracting two of the sequences of S’s type (other than S) from the actual world, and making the required adjustments. And so on until we arrive at W(1), which is the merely possible world in which S is the only event sequence of S’s type. Since S is a causal sequence in the actual world, then surely it is also a causal sequence in W(n-1). One fewer sequence of S’s type can have no bearing on whether or not S is a causal sequence. And if S is a causal sequence in W(n-1), then surely it is also one in W(n-2), and so on. Iterating this procedure, we conclude that S is a causal sequence in W(1) even though S is the sole instance of its type in W(1). But if S is a causal sequence in W(1), then it is possible that there be a causal sequence that does not instantiate a regularity. This implies that the regularity theory is false: it cannot be instantiation of a regularity that makes an event sequence a causal sequence.
I have heard it said that in W(1), S instantiates a single-case regularity. But a single-case regularity is surely no regularity at all. It is no more a regularity than negative growth is growth. (‘Single-case’ is an alienans adjective.) If there were single-case regularities, then every event sequence would be a causal sequence: every event sequence could be claimed to instantiate a regularity, namely the single-case regularity consisting of x being contiguously followed by y. The whole problem with regularity theories is that they imply that e1's causing of e2 is not an ‘internal matter’ pertaining to that event sequence, but depends on what goes on elsewhere: only if there are other events of e1's and e2's types such that every event of the first type is contiguously followed by any event of the second type is e1 a cause of e2. But this is totally counterintuitive. One event’s causing another has nothing to do with anything going on elsewhere. Why should a hydrogen leak on a space shuttle depend on hydrogen leaks on earth? Of course, if e1 causes e2, then presumably every event of e1's type must be contiguously followed by an event of e2's type — but this is not to say that there are any events of e1's type (other than e1) or any events of e2's type (other than e2). I am not denying that causation is regular, that the same (types of) causes bring about the same (types of) events; I am saying that an event sequence’s being causal cannot depend on there being other event sequences of the same type.
2. At the time of the Big Bang, some 15 billion years ago, when according to current cosmology space-time-matter first exploded into existence, there were no regularities: regularities take time to show themselves. There were, however, causal processes, for example, those that brought the universe from the first instant of the Big Bang to the state it was in one nanosecond later. So if the regularity theory were true, we would have to conclude that events near the Big Bang were uncaused. I think it is better to conclude that the regularity theory is false.
3. It is plausible to think of life as an ‘emergent phenomenon.’ That is, there was a time at which biological events and processes did not yet exist, and a later time at which they began to exist. Presumably, the beginning to exist – the ‘emergence’ – of the first biological events was caused by events that were not biological but merely physical or chemical. If so, this is another case of causation without regularity, and hence a counterexample to the regularity theory of causation.
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4. So far, every instance of match-striking (with sufficient force, in an oxygen-rich environment, etc.) has been followed by an instance of match-ignition. But if this is merely an Humean regularity, i.e., an exceptionless pattern of experience not underpinned by anything (e.g., not underpinned by, and explainable in terms of, a relation between universals as on the Dretske-Tooley-Armstrong theory), then the course of future experience may well overturn the regularity. Suppose regularity R is refuted by experience at some future time. Suppose, for example, that tomorrow I strike a match (of the usual type, in the usual way, in the usual circumstances) and it does not light, but turns to stone instead. Perhaps every match struck after tomorrow turns to stone. Either way, R is refuted. But then no event sequence that instantiates R, whether the sequence be past, present, or future, is a causal sequence. That is, yesterday’s striking-ignition sequences were not causal, since the regularity whose instantiation was supposed to confer causality upon them is not in fact an exceptionless regularity. To put it another way, whether or not a given present causal sequence is indeed causal depends on the future course of experience –- which is surely absurd. My present lighting of my pipe either is or is not a causal process, and whichever it is cannot possibly depends on what happens in the future. The causality of a given present causal sequence is as independent of future events as it is independent of other present events, past events, and events in other possible worlds.
I am assuming that for a regularity to be exceptionless, it must admit of no exception at any time, past, present, or future. If you deny this, you will have to admit the possibility of a regularity which is merely a regularity-at-a-time (or over a short interval of time). Suppose at t1 all strikings are followed by ignitions, at t2 all strikings are followed by petrifications, and at t3 all strikings are again followed by ignitions. Even though there is an exceptionless regularity at t2, presumably no one will say that striking causes petrification.
The regularity theory thus issues in a very bizarre consequence, namely, that the very existence of causal sequences depends on the future course of experience. For on Humean principles it is possible that the future course of experience overturn every single regularity that has hitherto manifested itself.
5. Diagnosis
A complete refutation must not only show that the theory under consideration is false; it must also explain how the theory arose. A complete refutation must account for the etiology of error. In the case of the regularity theory, I conjecture that it arises through a confusion of epistemology with metaphysics, specifically, a confusion of the question as to how we come to recognize or detect causal sequences and distinguish them from noncausal ones, with the question as to what causation is. Perhaps the only way to know whether a sequence is causal is by seeing whether or not it instantiates a regularity. If so, no regularity, no knowledge of causation. But it would be a non sequitur to conclude: no regularity, no causation. That would be to confuse the knowledge of causation with causation. Analogy: One can determine whether a substance is an acid or a base by seeing whether it turns red litmus paper blue or blue litmus paper red. But it would be absurd to say that a substance’s being an acid or a base consists in its changing the color of litmus paper.
I tend to think that Hume is right that we cannot empirically detect causal production and causal necessitation. (This is not obvious: Harre and Madden in Causal Powers (1975) claim that one can literally see, e.g., an earthquake destroy a building.) But it does not follow that there is no causal production or causal necessitation. They might well be empirically undetectable.